The world is so close to wiping out polio. But in 2025, there are signs that the virus is not quite ready to go the way of smallpox — the only disease eradicated by humans.
Two countries are seeing an increase in cases caused by the wild polio virus, which can cause paralysis and even death, particularly in infants and young children.
And the cuts in USAID contracts that support polio vaccination raise concern that other countries will see a resurgence as well.
Even with in-country vaccination campaigns and global aid, Pakistan and Afghanistan have so far been unable to stop transmission of the disease. In 2024, Pakistan’s numbers spiked to 74 while Afghanistan saw 24 recorded polio cases. So far this year, Pakistan has reported 6 cases and Afghanistan has reported 1. These new cases are tied to disruptions in ongoing vaccine campaigns.
Global health officials say there’s real concern that those numbers could balloon and that polio could reemerge in other countries as well in the wake of the dismantling of USAID. The potential for damage is quantified in a series of memos drafted by Nicholas Enrich, the acting assistant administrator for global health at USAID, and obtained by the press, including NPR. Enrich estimates how many people would possibly become sick and die if the pause in U.S. aid continues. He projected an additional 200,000 cases of polio that cause paralysis each year and hundreds of millions of infections overall.
“The sudden cuts to U.S. funding are also affecting efforts to eradicate polio,” said director general of the World Health Organization Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus in mid-March.
In Kenya, for example, the International Rescue Committee was part of a team doing polio vaccinations along with the Ministry of Health and World Vision. Much of that work was paid for by USAID.
“That actually was the first [of our USAID projects] to shut down on the 31st of January,” says Mohamed El Montassir Hussein, country director for the International Rescue Committee in Kenya. “Currently IRC’s support for polio vaccination in remote areas has stopped [because of the halt in U.S. funding] and future support is in question. The Ministry of Health vaccination efforts, though greatly impacted, continues.”
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